ALK - Alaska Air Group Inc.

[Henrique Costa]

Profile: Alaska Air Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, Alaska Airlines, Inc. and Horizon Air Industries, Inc., operates as an airline company serving destinations in the western United States, Canada, and Mexico. The company provides passenger air services; and freight and mail services primarily to and within the state of Alaska and on the West Coast. As of December 31, 2008, Alaska Airlines operated a fleet of 110 jet aircraft; and Horizon Air Industries operated a fleet of 18 jets and 41 turboprop aircraft. The company was founded in 1932 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.
Mkt Cap: 808M
Website: http://www.alaskaair.com/

Trading Thesis:

Mid term position play, based on TA and FA.

- Testing the mid term support, having a positive trend for mid term. We are betting on a positive reaction and further move to the higher range (26/27), we don't believe it could go below 21 for now.

- Fundamentals are interesting, estimates of 2.30$ EPS for FY09 and 2.86$ for FY10, that way ALK trades at just 8.6X P/E FY10, half of it's peers. Cash situation is not awesome, but it's reasonable for the sector.
JP Morgan has a 12 month PT of 31 for TC, and very good prospects.

Trading Plan:
Buy 5% @ the open, stop @ 21 and limit sell @ 27

regards,

[Henrique Costa]

Trading Thesis:

- Estimates are getting even better + recent upgrades + sector is getting hot.
- The chart is awsome after this recent retest on the ascending support line.

With that said, I want to be exposed on this stock once again, this time with bigger expectations, I expect an upside breakout soon and a further expansion for mid term.

Trading Plan:
Buy 5% @ the open, stop @ 24 and limit sell @ 39 (for both portfolios)