OPBL.OB - Its optionable!

[shipman]

Lower trend line 1.62, 50 day at 1.48.

[shipman]

I made a mistake 50 day is at 1.15.  30 day is at 1.48.  Sorry.

[kslifka]

OPBL is still going.

Great move today on huge volume

[cmebot]

Long 5000 since 1.80...which was in Nov 06.  Strong financials, rapidly inceasing trading volume due to energy volatility, and NYMEX just announced a 19% stake in the company today. 

Any thoughts?
Thanks

[boatguy]

Passing through 5$ premarket

[nicknite20]

Hold it..its going to 10.

Long since 3.44

Great close today..up 27% with 10 times avg vol..very bullish
Most of the buying was institutional..which is very encouraging.

Seems co. is doing roadshows next week..

[amstocks82]

I am in for about 5K OPBL as well but paid close to $3.00 for it.

I think it has gone up to fast and might fall back to the upwards trend line ... before continuing.

I'm trying to decide whether or not to hold it for a long term trade or sell it probably tomorrow.

Long term, I really think a stock like this can do very well especially with the interest from NYMEX.

[setravis]

"OPBL.OB" Threads have been Merged.
Please use the search before starting new threads on a Stock Pick.
Chances are a thread already exist.
So why not post whatever you have to comment about on that pick to that thread.
"Simplicity" My fellow traders.                       
All history on a stock pick in 1 thread is awesome.                       
Just trying to get threads together,so we don't have a numerous amount floating around on the same stock.   
Thank You....and good luck with all your trades....make some $$$            

[la-onda]

news update, chart update and company update = awesome 

1)
Optionable Inc Enters Into New Agreement With Opex International Inc
VALHALLA, N.Y., Feb 05, 2007 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX News Network/ -- Optionable, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: OPBL), a leading provider of natural gas and other energy derivatives brokerage services, announced it has entered into an agreement with Opex International Inc effective January 31, 2007, to provide a floor broker on the floor of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX(TM)) to trade certain derivatives. As a result of this agreement, the Company also announced that it has terminated its agreement with Capital Energy Services (CES) effective January 31, 2007, whereby CES had provided that service previously.

President Edward O'Connor said, "We believe that this agreement with Opex International will further enhance the transparency of the Company, and it will help facilitate a higher level of control of our operations in the natural gas and crude oil brokerage business we support on the floor of the NYMEX."

The Company did not incur any early termination penalties in connection with the CES termination. The Company expects to file a Form 8-K shortly.

[la-onda]

Optionable Reports Record Results for the 2006 Fourth Quarter and Full Year
Tuesday February 6, 4:01 pm ET
Revenue and Net Income Increase to All Time Highs

VALHALLA, N.Y., Feb. 6 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Optionable, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: OPBL - News), a leading provider of natural gas and other energy derivatives brokerage services, announced today record results for its fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2006. The Company said that revenues increased 310 percent for the fourth quarter and 177 percent for the full year compared to prior-year periods, and net income reached all-time highs, increasing 859 percent for the fourth quarter and 393 percent for the full year compared to prior-year periods.


Revenues for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2006, were $6.8 million, with net income of $2.5 million, or $0.05 per diluted share, up from $1.7 million in revenue, and net income of $262,769, or $0.01 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter of 2005. Operating margin increased to 58 percent for this year's fourth quarter up from 19 percent for the fourth quarter of 2005. The weighted average number of diluted common shares used in the computations was 53,020,901 and 51,750,647 for the fourth quarter of 2006 and of 2005, respectively.

Commenting on the results, Optionable CEO Kevin Cassidy said, "2006 was a benchmark year for us, with the launch of our electronic trading platform, OPEX®, as well as our Analytics service. We're particularly happy with these results as they are due almost entirely to our customers' positive response to the innovative and impeccable service we delivered to them. These results also demonstrate a very healthy and largely untapped market for our derivative brokerage services.

"The results for the quarter and the year were driven primarily by our voice-brokerage and open outcry service; however, OPEX, which we launched in July 2006, is beginning to add to our overall revenue mix. We expect that the efficiency of OPEX in executing trades, will cause its contribution to revenue to become a substantial portion of the mix as we progress into 2007 and even 2008, particularly as we begin to open up the market for our services."

Cassidy continued, "We intend to build on the success we've enjoyed to date, adding products and services beyond our capabilities in the energy derivative market and Analytics. We intend to look at expanding our relationship with NYMEX, and increase the traction of OPEX. In short, there are a number of strategic opportunities in front of us and we will examine each one thoroughly and carefully in order to continue building Optionable into a force in the derivatives brokerage business.

"During the past year we experimented with releasing the number of contracts traded on a monthly basis, but at this point we feel the information is more meaningful when it is part of a quarterly earnings release."

Revenues for the year ended December 31, 2006, were $16.1 million, with net income of $6.2 million, or $0.12 per diluted share, up from $5.8 million in revenues with net income of $1.3 million, or $0.02 per diluted share. Operating margin increased to 52 percent for 2006, up from 26 percent for 2005. The weighted average number of diluted common shares used in the computations was 52,559,445 for 2006 and 51,524,732 for 2005. As of December 31, 2006, the Company had cash and cash equivalents of $7.9 million.

The Company announced in January 2007 that three of its founding stockholders executed a binding term sheet for an agreement with NYMEX Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: NMX - News; "NYMEX") concerning certain cooperative technology initiatives, the acquisition of a 19 percent stake in Optionable by NYMEX from its three founding stockholders and Optionable's issuance to NYMEX of a warrant which would permit it to increase its ownership in Optionable.

The Company also announced in January 2007 that due to its rapid growth, it re-located its headquarters to larger facilities in Westchester County.

[la-onda]

opbl was on fire 

Tuesday, February 6, 2007
OPBL Conference Call

I have just finished listening to the OPBL conference call for the second time and everything appears to be very positive. I think that the call went fairly well for being their first CC, and although I don't think we got a lot of new information, the conference call should help to bring some new buyers into the fold.

First, I will start by commenting on the day's trading in OPBL, specifically with respect to the dip back to $5.45 this afternoon. This is a textbook example of how investors have become more and more fixated on the earnings estimate or "whisper number," and taking their eye off the bigger picture. The figure of 7 cents per share was widely circulated as an estimate for Q4, but of course, those estimates (mine included) failed to recognize that taxes would eventually kick in and take a chunk out of profits. Therefore, a selloff ensued after OPBL's supposed earnings "miss." Short term traders bailed out of the stock, creating an opportunity that I took advantage to add to my position in OPBL before the close.

As for the "miss," all profitable companies have to pay taxes, but taxes can sometimes be lumpy and therefore can cause volatility in the actual earnings number. However, they don't say anything about the underlying business, so they are best removed from the equation. Removing the taxes from OPBL's Q4 results yields earnings of 7.8 cents per share, which is in fact slightly higher than the "whisper number."

Today's action indicates the pitfalls of taking a short term approach to investing. Short term traders often become so fixated on the earnings number, they fail to look at the underlying condition of the business. Anyone with half a brain would realize that a company with quarterly revenue growth of 313 percent and net income growth of 859 percent is a special company, and that those types of numbers bode well for the future. Because short term traders are impatient and often fail to put in the required research, they somehow come to a different conclusion, and make bad trading decisions.

I am not going to rehash all of the numbers for OPBL, but rather, I will point out what I think are the most significant points. Obviously, #1 is the tax issue, which caused net income to be lower by about 3 cents. Taxes should be less of an issue going forward, as they are now likely to be fairly stable and have less of an effect on earnings.

As for other bits of information, OPBL confirmed that about 10% of their trading volumes are going through OPEX at the moment. I think that this leaves significant room for growth, and they specifically commented that they have seen increased interest with electronic trading from hedge funds even since the NYMEX announcement two weeks ago.

They have also had a successful release of their analytics tool, a value added program which allows institutions to access real time real time information across the entire scope of the futures/derivatives chain. I am not sure how prevalent this is with other brokers, but it sounds like a worthwhile service. Institutions are going to want to see all the bids and asks, and this could give OPBL an edge in gaining market share.

Clients now include Merrill Lynch, Wachovia, JP Morgan Chase, the Bank of Montreal, and many others.

As far as the balance sheet goes, OPBL increased their cash pot to $7.9 million, up $3.5 million for the quarter. While the cash pile is still small, such rapid growth (which will likely continue) will give them flexibility to increase the size of their staff and expand and establish a dominant position in other derivative markets.

As far as guidance goes, OPBL will no longer give monthly trading volume reports, but will provide more comprehensive volume reports each quarter. They did provide a bit of color on January by saying it had been a "good" month.

Referring to margins, they did note that margins had the potential to increase as more customers have become interested in using OPEX in recent months.

Regarding the deal with NYMEX, it is worth noting that the 10 million shares bought by NYMEX were purchased directly from insiders. I view this as a positive because it should reduce the itch for insiders to sell and cash in on their success. The option to buy another 20% of the company will also help in this regard, because it offers insiders a way of diversifying their assets without damaging the stock price.

On the questions front, the most notable part was probably the fact that their was a question from an analyst with Oppenheimer. The rest of the questions came from lesser known institutions, showing that the company is getting some notice at a bigger firm, but is still mostly unknown.

As far as 2007 is concerned, the only thing they said was that they thought that 2007 would be the year that validated their business model. I hope they're right!

Finally, I'd just like to address a few questions that I've been asked over recent weeks...

1) How much business do they lose from ICE because of the NYMEX deal?
I can't give any numbers, but this is a non-issue as far as current earnings are concerned. Because OPBL is dominant in natural gas and their clients are all in North America, it makes sense to go with NYMEX. Natgas is difficult to transport, so their is very little demand by US based companies to trade natgas with ICE in London. Because the US is a bigger market for natgas consumption, trading is more liquid on the NYMEX, so traders will also tend to stick to trading on the NYMEX. NYMEX is the dominant brand for natgas, so it makes sense to stick with them.

As far as other energy futures go, things that are more transportable will be more subject to trading on ICE, but as of now, these products make up very little of OPBL's revenue. While they are expanding into oil/electricity/etc, OPBL will not be affected by potential lost revenues from dealing with ICE. Perhaps there is an "opportunity cost," but for the most part this will be a non-issue because NYMEX is a dominant brand and should be able to hold its own with ICE. In any case, the ties with NYMEX should give OPBL an advantage in breaking into new derivative markets, as NYMEX will no doubt work with OPBL and advise them on capturing business in these new derivatives. The advantage of being an early mover and becoming a dominant player in NYMEX trading is significant, and I would rather see OPBL be dominant on one exchange rather than mediocre on two.

2) Does the agreement with CES (Opex Int'l) indicate that the company is set up to benefit the founders, and that shareholders are getting a raw deal?

No. The deal with CES to handle the floor trading is actually a good deal for OPBL, because it saves them from having to buy a seat on the NYMEX at a cost of almost $4 million. It also allows them to provide better service to customers by providing both electronic and OTC trading. This allows them to gain customers right now who are not able to trade entirely via electronic means. As the electronic market becomes more liquid, these customers will increasingly move to electronic trading.

I think it is also interesting that CES changed its name to Opex International yesterday. This indicates to me that they are linking themselves to OPEX, which will help to spread the perception in the marketplace that the CES/OPBL team can provide trading flexibility with regard to electronic and OTC trading. The more customers they can capture now, the better it is for OPBL in the long run, because trading will increasing become electronic. So the deal might look too good for CES now, but it is huge help to OPBL in the long run. Capturing customers now is key! After all, how often do you switch your broker?

http://otcspeculator.blogspot.com/2007/02/opbl-conference-call.html

[la-onda]

Is a NYMEX-Optionable Buyout in the Works?
Monday February 12, 10:53 am ET

Ant & Sons submits: Optionable, Inc. , a leading provider of natural gas and other energy derivatives brokerage services, announced last Tuesday record results for its fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2006. The company reported revenues that increased 310% for the fourth quarter and net income that increased 859%. Revenues for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2006, were $6.8 million, with net income of $2.5 million, or $0.05 per diluted share. However, shares failed to rally much, probably because earlier in the year, the company reported that for the month of December, it executed a record of 1,780,659 options and swaps contracts for its clients. Therefore, the Street was not totally surprised by the company's growth and earnings numbers.
Yet, on Friday, shares unexpectedly rose $1.22, or 20.50%, to $7.17 on volume of 6.1 million shares compared to the daily average of 872,618 shares traded. The move could be attributed to speculation that NYMEX Holdings Inc. (NYSE: NMX - News) will increase its stake in the company. On January 22, Optionable announced that NYMEX, the world's largest physical commodity exchange, would purchase a 19% stake in the company. Given Optionable's expansion and growth in the derivatives business, it is certainly not out of the question that NYMEX would increase their stake in the company, or even launch an outright bid to take over the company before its shares become too expensive. Such a move would be the catalyst for further upside in Optionable shares that have already had a terrific run over the past six months.

http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/070212/26772_id.html?.v=1

[Terliso]

Outstanding!!

[snowcat]

This was on the penny stock list by FOUS.  - When it was $1.30!  Now it is close to $9!  That is why the smart $ is on the FOUS-man!

I was a great buy then and now!  That Fous comes thru!

OPBL is a trading platform that specializes in trading certain deratives that the big boys like NYMEX want a part of - in fact, NYMEX bought a big chunk of OPBL recently.  And it seems many others want some too.

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7229.0

Look back at the old site for great analysis on a promising stock

[la-onda]

fyi again:
Eye on Optionable
Wednesday February 14, 6:02 am ET

Think Intrinsic submits: Optionable is a provider of energy derivatives brokering services and has developed a leading electronic trade matching and brokerage system named OPEX. OPEX was launched in July 2006 and has experienced rapid growth which we expect to continue.
OPEX makes use of Nymex's (NYSE: NMX - News) ClearPort clearing platform, which has seen average daily volume increase an average of 130% over the last three years. The ClearPort growth and stunning growth at Optionable stems from the increased interest in trading energy derivatives.

From the 30 January, 2007 press release:

"OPEX(NYSE: R - News) is a real-time electronic trade matching and brokerage system designed to improve liquidity and transparency in the energy derivatives market."

The rest of this report focuses on the company rather than the technical details of OPEX. More information on OPEX can be found on the Optionable, Inc. website.

Technology Leader

I will be the first to admit that I could know more about the technology behind OPEX. This is why, when looking at Optionable, it is necessary to get a professional opinion about the prospects for company's OPEX trading platform. Fortunately, NYMEX just agreed to purchase a non-dilutive 19% stake in the company (they will purchase shares from the founders). In the company's first conference call, management stated that NYMEX will also be issued warrants to purchase additional shares of the company, but no more than a total of 40% of all shares outstanding. When the largest commodity exchange purchases a 19% stake and wants to work with Optionable to further develop OPEX, this serves as evidence to me that the technology holds significant promise.

Insider Ownership

This stock has gone from about $1 to over $6 in a matter of months but management has not sold, as far as I can tell, any shares on the open market. In fact, several executives have exercised options and held onto the shares. Even after the NYMEX agreement goes through, the top four executives will retain approximately a 26% stake in the company.

Earnings Growth

OPBL had earnings of $2.5M last quarter, up from $2.2M in the previous quarter. That is 13% sequential growth. Annualized (without compounding) that's 52% earnings growth. If we assume $2.5M per quarter for the next 3 quarters, that would put earnings at $10M per year. The P/E would be 34. There are a lot of assumptions baked into these numbers. And for many people, you will be in disbelief when I say I believe these numbers are conservative. The P/E of 34, for instance, assumes no further earnings growth, but we know that the industry is booming. Now I am going to go out on a limb and suggest that there are reasons earnings growth will accelerate. Optionable already has phone and open-outcry brokering operations. OPEX trades have higher margins and existing customers have and will continue to make use of OPEX, which will boost the company's margins. If OPEX is as good as the NYMEX agreement indicates, OPEX should attract first-time customers also. In summary, Optionable should continue to see growing sales and margins.
When OPEX contributes to Optionable's bottom line for several quarters, analysts will see that the growth is sustainable and it will be easier to extrapolate future growth rates. This could lead to P/E expansion (or contraction if you're a pessimist).

Other Value Considerations

Management owns a lot of this company and that should be very meaningful to any potential investor. Also, NYMEX's stake is most important because it symbolizes a willingness to further develop OPEX. Optionable is aligning itself with the biggest commodity exchange; this will be extremely beneficial for the company in the future.

Increased Transparency

Optionable previously brokered trades on the floor of the NYMEX through a company called CES, which is a separate company owned by Optionable's CEO. OPBL announced that it is no longer using CES, which eliminates a conflict of interest. Going forward, the company will use an independent company to execute trades on the floor of the NYMEX.
OPBL was a very small company only a few months ago and has made an effort to eliminate some practices that aren't considered appropriate for larger companies. I suspect that the increases in transparency are going to precede an application for listing on a major American exchange. This will attract more investors and potentially drive the price even higher.

Risks

No look at a company is complete without looking at the risks. OPBL is expected to grow very quickly and if it doesn't meet these expectations then we will see the stock price fall. I believe the biggest risk is a competing commodity exchange acquiring a company similar to OPBL, which will compete head-to-head. However, OPBL has NYMEX in its corner. So perhaps the worst case scenario is if NYMEX loses interest in OPBL and instead acquires a competitor. I will be looking out for the full agreement regarding the warrants and will pay attention to whether NYMEX cashes out, although I have always believed this was a strategic long term investment for NYMEX.

Potential investors must also consider that when NYMEX exercises its warrants there will be share dilution of roughly 20%.

Conclusion

Optionable is not a typical company. Its value lies in OPEX, its agreement with NYMEX, and its existing customer base that can be leveraged to drive revenue and margin growth. There is uncertainty regarding growth projections; this is undeniable. This is also not a typical company that we analyze either, but this is a great example of "value through growth." A solid underlying business model, promising technology, and management with "skin in the game" are the reasons I like OPBL.

http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/070214/27019_id.html?.v=1