BFLY

[David Randolph]

Thanks a lot for your comments/analysis on BFLY zibeaster

I still need to thank you on your awesome analysis on GOAM, you opened my eyes to it when I went to the Yahoo Board

As for BFLY, the stock has kind of low liquidity and has been stuck in a trading range, so it could have gone both ways today (it was up and down during the session).

The 50 days SMA closed above the 200 days SMA, despite the stock being down on the day. I'm prepared to be up or down 10 or 20% on this trade without a blink of an eye, like zibeaster says, revenues are consistently up, profits are around the corner, longer term the stock has nowhere to go but up in my humble opinion.

[zibeaster]

David, thanks for your complement. You traded GOAM better than I did. This is a great site and you have done a fantastic job.

[HANDBALLJIM]

This is a great site and you have done a fantastic job.

I second that 

I also showed my wife who is Japanese the BlueFly website and she said that anyone with fashion sense would want to shop at this website...and she said many Japanese men and women in her country try to find special addition clothing that is not common. She said looking at some of items...you will not be able to find them being sold on other websites.

Niche type clothing websites are very successful, since they cut deals with the designers to offer a product first...or an exclusive. Also when styles change you can no longer find certain items anymore. Well these type of websites will sometimes buy the back stock on discontinued items. Remember it is usually when you cannot buy something anymore...is when you really want it.

I will also hold BFLY for a while...I just might not know when to sell it when it does go up...so I will be watching this boards actions.

The great thing I have learned about this website...is before I would review charts and news for a couple of hours at night/morning....here you have hundreds of people helping you with research and to make logical decisions.

[David Randolph]

Thanks for the kind words zibeaster and HANDBALLJIM

As for GOAM, I'm keeping an eye on it, now everybody is thinking it won't be able to turn out a profit, but of course it will, so many will be surprised and the stock will make another bullish run. Probably I'll buy it back close to the earnings release, hopefully between $6 and $7

Thanks for your wife's review on BFLY HANDBALLJIM, we agree, the website sells for the whole world, and especially people in Asia love these fashion items.

There weren't any news or technical developments today, I'll continue holding BFLY (just noticed they also sell fashion sunglasses, cool: www.bluefly.com)

[Terliso]

BFLY advertisement are everywhere

[David Randolph]

BFLY advertisement are everywhere

It should be everywhere, they spent $3,625,000 in advertising in Q3 alone:

«We increased our spending in marketing  (excluding  staff related costs) by 115% to  $3,104,000  for the third  quarter of 2006,  from  $1,442,000  for the third quarter 2005. The primary goal of our marketing campaign is to create awareness, both with new customers as well as with our existing  customers.  In general, we intend to market our business more  aggressively than we have in previous years. This more  aggressive  growth  strategy  will cause our  marketing  expense as a percentage of revenue to increase in the short-term; however, we believe that it is a prudent  investment  in our business  given that our margin  structure  and average  order size have  historically  resulted in a relatively  high  positive contribution to overhead and marketing on a customer's first order.»

There were no new technical or fundamental developments, I'll continue holding BFLY, expecting for its first quarterly profit in Q4 2006.

[Se7en]

Bluefly Announces Participation in the Cowen and Company 5th Annual Consumer Conference
Monday January 8, 10:27 am ET

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Bluefly, Inc. (NASDAQ SmallCap: BFLY - News), a leading online retailer of designer brands, fashion trends and superior value (www.bluefly.com), announced today that it will present at the Cowen and Company 5th Annual Consumer Conference at the Westin New York in New York on January 10th.

The Bluefly presentation will be held at 2:30 pm Eastern Time. The PowerPoint and audio portion of the conference will be available for at least 30 days from the date of the presentation at http://investor.bluefly.com .


http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070108/20070108006093.html?.v=1

[David Randolph]

Thanks for posting the news Se7en

Wow, BFLY was evil today

I hope you were not stopped out, and if you were, I suggest you jump back in again. I guess many people that bought on the day we bought at 3 Stocks were weak hands and placed stops below the $1.20 short term support level.

Probably the market maker or someone looking to accumulate shares used a low volume time of the day to trigger those stop loss orders and get shares at a discount. Then the stock rebounded and actually closed 3.25% up on the day.

This looks like a classic "washout" day. Perhaps BFLY is now, finally, ready to make the long white candlestick we've all been waiting for.

But my motivation isn't technical, as you know. My personal estimates tell me BFLY will show a profitable quarter when it presents Q4 results, and that might be huge news for the share price. Moreover, I love online retailers, even more so when they sell exclusive designer brands as www.bluefly.com does.

I'll continue holding BFLY with strong hands.

[Terliso]

This looks like a classic "washout" day. Perhaps BFLY is now, finally, ready to make the long white candlestick we've all been waiting for.

I think we're almost there, I can see it now......

[David Randolph]

Terliso said: «you do this», and of course, BFLY responded accordingly, he's called "The Magic" for a reason.

The candlestick was bullish and volume was above average. After yesterday's washout BFLY is finally doing what it must do, given the fundamentals.

I'll keep on holding BFLY, expecting the best quarter ever when it reports results.

[nutsterrt]

Data from the Form 8-K filed prior to today's conference presentaiton. Here's to a big honkin' white candle today!

Bluefly Sees Strong 4Q Sales Growth
Wednesday January 10, 7:57 am ET
Bluefly Sees 4th-Quarter Sales Expand More Than 26 Percent

NEW YORK (AP) -- Online clothing retailer Bluefly Inc. said Wednesday its fourth-quarter sales rose more than 26 percent despite slower sales of cold weather clothing.

The company said its expects quarterly sales to grow 26 percent to 28 percent over the prior year period's $21.2 million sales, which implies revenue of between $26.7 million and $27.1 million.

Full-year sales expanded 30 percent to 31 percent over 2005 sales of $58.8 million, Bluefly said. The puts annual sales at roughly $76.4 million to $77 million.

Bluefly said sales slowed in December, due to softer demand for cold weather items such as outerwear, hats gloves and scarves, and sweaters. December temperatures in the U.S. were well above normal, according to the National Weather Service.

However, it said results were bolstered by year-end deferred revenue, which more than doubled.

[David Randolph]

As I read this thread, my expectations were:

«From what the company has been saying about monthly revenues, I expect it to report sales of between $27 M and $30 M in Q4 2006.»

You have:

The company said its expects quarterly sales to grow 26 percent to 28 percent over the prior year period's $21.2 million sales, which implies revenue of between $26.7 million and $27.1 million.

So, a bit light.

For the full year:

Full-year sales expanded 30 percent to 31 percent over 2005 sales of $58.8 million, Bluefly said. The puts annual sales at roughly $76.4 million to $77 million.

My expectations were between $75 and $80 M.

So, it looks like the weather (which has been abnormally warm for this season) didn't help BFLY to have a terrific quarter. I guess several traders will be disappointed by these numbers, because the latest two press releases were indicative of more of a surge in sales (it looks like December was relatively weak).

Anyway, revenue growth from 2005 levels is something like 30 to 31%, and that's what I expected in my long term estimates (once I hoped for more, but 30% average annual growth is great).

Perhaps the stock will go down today (or else my expectations were way above the market consensus), but I still see it as an astounding long term holding.

[David Randolph]

I see the stock opening higher, given the pre-market action so far.

If I were a trader I would take profits, but being a long term investor (and the Stocks on Fire Portfolio manager, which can't sell at $1.40 - $1.45 to try to buy at $1.25 - $1.30, for example), I'll keep on holding.

The wise thing to do is to keep on holding BFLY for the long term, because strong growth continues, and a bit of a soft quarter doesn't mean anything in the long term picture. I'm just saying that the numbers are a bit shy from what I expected and probably the stock will sell off after the open. If it goes up, even better, it means the market wasn't expecting as much from BFLY as I did and is becoming aware of this gem.

I provided the information I get from the numbers but I am a long term investor in BFLY, good luck for all 

[David Randolph]

Unfortunately I was right about the market's reaction to today's numbers released by BFLY. But let's put those revenue numbers into context:



Average annual revenue growth since 2000 was 24%. This year revenue growth was even higher, at 30-31%.

So, what's the problem with revenues? There isn't any problem, they are great !

We still need to hear about gross and net margins, net income and EPS, among other important things of Q4. But a quarter is just a quarter, and a fundamental analyst needs to trust long term fundamental trends.

With revenues growing perhaps at a 30% average for the next 10 years, BFLY will have $1.06 B in revenues in 2016. If the current price to sales ratio persists at 2.17, this will translate to a $2.3 B market cap company, almost 14 times the current market cap.

This means 1,300% profit in ten years. That's 30% average annual profit for a long term holder of BFLY's shares. I'll take anything that gives me at least 16% average annual profit, because that's double the general market average.

And who knows, we can all be positively surprised and BFLY's revenues rise even more than 30% going forward.

We also need to check those margins, because at some point this company will be very profitable, because an online retailer has much less costs than a brick and mortar retailer.

I'll continue holding BFLY for the long term, despite expecting some short term weakness.

[nutsterrt]

Any chance we can get a technical analysis on BFLY for the near-term? The fact that it closed below 1.20 yesterday has made me a little nervous, as I now see the next support around 1.10 and then the 50MA at 1.07. If it falls much further from current levels, I may be taking money elsewhere for the time being.

Thanks