ICOC

[la-onda]

awesome pick David. applauds

cheers
Oliver

[David Randolph]

awesome pick David. applauds

cheers
Oliver

Thanks la-onda, indeed, ICOC has been great. I'll keep holding the stock for some more time, looking to take profits in the $19 area, if there's no new fundamental information.

[soxguy]

Can't find any news why icoc getting hit so hard today.

[David Randolph]

Can't find any news why icoc getting hit so hard today.

La-onda had to talk

I guess when a stock is up 73% in about a month you don't need any news for a 10% plus sell off to happen. I wish the sell off came after hitting the $19 area, but no, it happened now. I guess it's no big deal.

[soxguy]

From the yahoo mb. View all Topics | View all Messages   < Newer Topic | Older Topic >
Re: There must be some down grade today.  (Not rated)      12 minutes ago     There is a reason for today's action that has nothing to do with shorts. A pretty well respected investment advisory service, Upside Stocks, has had a buy on this for some time. Last night their hotline came out with a sell saying that the stock had probably peaked. They came out with the same advice for DWSN - and it's reacting similarly.

Their advice posted below. I know this rag is pretty widely followed.

DOWNGRADES: Dawson Geophysical ($80; NASDAQ: DWSN) has been an outstanding performer, gaining 59% since its initial recommendation six months ago. While recent results have been excellent and near-term growth prospects are bright, the stock appears fully valued at 26 times trailing earnings — well above its five-year average P/E of 19. Dawson, initially recommended at $49.97 on March 29, should be sold.


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ICO ($15; NASDAQ: ICOC) has outstanding operating momentum, reflecting volume gains and price increases. Near-term growth should remain strong, but the stock appears to fully discount ICO's outlook. At 19 times the consensus profit estimate for the year ending September 2008, the stock's forward P/E is nearly twice its five-year average. ICO, initially recommended at $8.71 on May 31, should be sold.
Rate it:

Might explain the drop if true.

[BigSully1]

From the yahoo mb. View all Topics | View all Messages   < Newer Topic | Older Topic >
Re: There must be some down grade today.  (Not rated)      12 minutes ago     There is a reason for today's action that has nothing to do with shorts. A pretty well respected investment advisory service, Upside Stocks, has had a buy on this for some time. Last night their hotline came out with a sell saying that the stock had probably peaked. They came out with the same advice for DWSN - and it's reacting similarly.

Their advice posted below. I know this rag is pretty widely followed.

DOWNGRADES: Dawson Geophysical ($80; NASDAQ: DWSN) has been an outstanding performer, gaining 59% since its initial recommendation six months ago. While recent results have been excellent and near-term growth prospects are bright, the stock appears fully valued at 26 times trailing earnings — well above its five-year average P/E of 19. Dawson, initially recommended at $49.97 on March 29, should be sold.


----------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------

ICO ($15; NASDAQ: ICOC) has outstanding operating momentum, reflecting volume gains and price increases. Near-term growth should remain strong, but the stock appears to fully discount ICO's outlook. At 19 times the consensus profit estimate for the year ending September 2008, the stock's forward P/E is nearly twice its five-year average. ICO, initially recommended at $8.71 on May 31, should be sold.
Rate it:

Might explain the drop if true.

I can verify it is true as I have a subscription as I've mentioned before,  on this thread, maybe others. I'm surprised someone quoted copyrighted material on the public Yahoo board though. They issued a total of 7 sells last night, all of which are down today. I had already sold mine couple days ago and was planning to buyback around 12, but the selling pressure today was huge, will have to wait now to see how it plays out.

[la-onda]

La-onda had to talk
[/quote]


no downgrades found 
latest from 7th of Sept.:
ICOC: Sidoti & Co Cuts to Neutral from Buy
Friday , September 07, 2007 11:08ET
Issuer: ICO, Inc. (NasdaqNM: ICOC)
Analyst Firm:  Sidoti & Co.
Ratings Action: DOWNGRADE
Current Rating: Neutral (from Buy)

but this was definitely not the reason for the drop yesterday, I agree with Davids comment
cheers
O.

[David Randolph]

I can verify it is true as I have a subscription as I've mentioned before,  on this thread, maybe others. I'm surprised someone quoted copyrighted material on the public Yahoo board though. They issued a total of 7 sells last night, all of which are down today. I had already sold mine couple days ago and was planning to buyback around 12, but the selling pressure today was huge, will have to wait now to see how it plays out.

Did you check BigSully1? Thanks.

«ICO ($15; NASDAQ: ICOC) has outstanding operating momentum, reflecting volume gains and price increases. Near-term growth should remain strong, but the stock appears to fully discount ICO's outlook. At 19 times the consensus profit estimate for the year ending September 2008, the stock's forward P/E is nearly twice its five-year average. ICO, initially recommended at $8.71 on May 31, should be sold.»

It's curious, they recommended the stock in the same exact day that I did, May 31st, 2007.

They think it reached its full value so they recommended selling. This had quite an impact on the stock ... I thought it was strange when it opened down 3% plus and then, because the stock was up so much, the selling gained momentum.

Anyway, I'm glad the cause for the sell off was this and not a new piece of fundamental information out of the company. This doesn't worry me at all (even though I, like everybody else, feel the short term pain).

You see, they're basing their sell recommendation on analysts views for fiscal 2008, which call for full year EPS of $0.78. I think this is too low. Just like the fiscal 2007 figure, which they still estimate at $0.60. Well, the company already made $0.54 in the nine months so far into the year and even though the 4th quarter is just a bit seasonally weak, I think the company will make more than $0.06 EPS, don't you think?

ICOC had an exceptionally strong sell off yesterday, but I think the $12 support area and the improving fundamentals will ultimately drive it to new highs. I'll patiently keep holding ICOC.

[BigSully1]

I can verify it is true as I have a subscription as I've mentioned before,  on this thread, maybe others. I'm surprised someone quoted copyrighted material on the public Yahoo board though. They issued a total of 7 sells last night, all of which are down today. I had already sold mine couple days ago and was planning to buyback around 12, but the selling pressure today was huge, will have to wait now to see how it plays out.

Did you check BigSully1? Thanks.

It's curious, they recommended the stock in the same exact day that I did, May 31st, 2007.

They think it reached its full value so they recommended selling. This had quite an impact on the stock ... I thought it was strange when it opened down 3% plus and then, because the stock was up so much, the selling gained momentum.

Anyway, I'm glad the cause for the sell off was this and not a new piece of fundamental information out of the company. This doesn't worry me at all (even though I, like everybody else, feel the short term pain).

You see, they're basing their sell recommendation on analysts views for fiscal 2008, which call for full year EPS of $0.78. I think this is too low. Just like the fiscal 2007 figure, which they still estimate at $0.60. Well, the company already made $0.54 in the nine months so far into the year and even though the 4th quarter is just a bit seasonally weak, I think the company will make more than $0.06 EPS, don't you think?

ICOC had an exceptionally strong sell off yesterday, but I think the $12 support area and the improving fundamentals will ultimately drive it to new highs. I'll patiently keep holding ICOC.

Yes david. I got the hotline and double checked it . I know it was originally reccommended about the same time as you recommended. I want to point out that they don't always have the timliest buy/sells and I only cherry-pick from them, even occaisonally buying after they throw in the towel. A few weeks ago they sold one that they held for several years w/ a very large gain, the stock is now up 20% higher after diving big the day the sell rec came out. I think $12 is no way paying too much for this stock and ICOC is VERY likely, almost assuredly to beat  expectations, and I don't see why they couldn't continue to do so. I would like to buy back soon.

[David Randolph]

Thanks BigSully1. I guess ICOC suffered a double whammy yesterday, I've just received an e-mail with the following explanation for yesterday's fall:

«Before I go on, I want to let you know what happened on September 26, when the stock closed down nearly $3 on 4x the usual volume.  It turns out that someone (hedge funds ??) put out a false report that ICOC was downgraded by a "boutique shop firm" from Buy to Neutral.  Well, that firm (Sidoti) did downgrade ICOC but it was on September 7.  That day, the stock closed at $12 and since that day it got as high as $15.50.   When you look at the chart, you see that this stock has been going almost straight up from $9 during the last couple of months, so in a way, yesterdays "breather" was necessary and gives a much better entry.»

The e-mail also says ICOC is going to the top 10 of IBD top 100 list. We'll see about that.

ICOC is recovering some ground today, up about 5%.

[BigSully1]

Thanks BigSully1. I guess ICOC suffered a double whammy yesterday, I've just received an e-mail with the following explanation for yesterday's fall:

«Before I go on, I want to let you know what happened on September 26, when the stock closed down nearly $3 on 4x the usual volume.  It turns out that someone (hedge funds ??) put out a false report that ICOC was downgraded by a "boutique shop firm" from Buy to Neutral.  Well, that firm (Sidoti) did downgrade ICOC but it was on September 7.  That day, the stock closed at $12 and since that day it got as high as $15.50.   When you look at the chart, you see that this stock has been going almost straight up from $9 during the last couple of months, so in a way, yesterdays "breather" was necessary and gives a much better entry.»

The e-mail also says ICOC is going to the top 10 of IBD top 100 list. We'll see about that.

ICOC is recovering some ground today, up about 5%.

I agree David. I think it has probably already seen the bottom of it's correction and I shouldn't have been so greedy to hope to buy back around $12. The part about the Top of the IBD list is speculation right now, but also very possible. Stocks have to be above $15 and remain there to get on the list. Has to get over the $15 resistance level first., but definitely IBD 100 quality. IBD has/had absolute highest/best top ratings in all four categories for ICOC, although the sector as a whole is not that well rated.

[David Randolph]

Thanks for the information BigSully1. It seems ICOC went down for no fundamental reason, so the stock should go back up and breakout to new highs, since the intrinsic value is superior, at least according to my analysis.

I'll hold ICOC.

[David Randolph]

ICOC already recovered more than half of that very steep Wednesday sell off.

I see resin prices are firm and bound to go higher, after some weakness (read the polyethylene analysis at www.plasticsexchange.com), which is good for ICOC.

I'm confident ICOC will end up breaking out above the $16 level, if given time. I'll keep holding ICOC.

[David Randolph]

Nothing new for ICOC today, I'll keep holding the stock.

[David Randolph]

My journey from being mostly a technical trader to a fundamentally based long term investor has made me think about some other, perhaps as important or even more important, issues, like money management.

As I look to the Main Portfolio table I see that the stock with the least potential (ICOC) has the highest size, and the stock with the highest potential (CIMT) has the lowest size. It shouldn't be this way, not if I'm in the pursuit of  outstanding results.

But, of course, CIMT is more risky than ICOC, because it is such a micro-cap company.

I still need to give more thought about the "size issue", but somehow I don't feel comfortable holding 10.2% in ICOC, with just 37% to go to the optimal selling price given by my valuation model.

So I'm going to do something that I think I've never done before, which is, I'm going to sell half of my ICOC position, bringing it down from 10.2% of the Main Portfolio capital to a more reasonable 5.1%.

If ICOC were one of those stocks that I truly love for the long term I would keep the entire position, but if that were the case I wouldn't be willing to sell the stock 37% higher either, I would hold it for a lot more than that.

The trading plan is:

Take a 60% or so profit in ICOC, selling half of the position. Keep holding the other half.